The future of Intel's manufacturing processes
by Anand Lal Shimpi on December 11, 2000 1:23 AM EST- Posted in
- CPUs
10GHz by 2005 running at < 1 volt
The P6 micro-architecture was introduced with the Pentium Pro at 150MHz in 1995 and is still with us today with the Pentium III at 1GHz. The P6 architecture will be with us for a little while longer, in the end offering clock speeds close to 1.3GHz if not higher which is close to a 9x increase in clock speed since the architecture’s introduction. Thus it isn’t too far fetched to assume a similar scalability from the Pentium 4’s NetBurst architecture.
Realistically speaking, we should be able to see NetBurst based processors reach somewhere between 8 – 10GHz in the next five years before the architecture is replaced yet again. Reaching 2GHz isn’t much of a milestone, however reaching 8 – 10GHz begins to make things much more exciting than they are today. Obviously this 8 – 10GHz clock range would be based on Intel’s 0.07-micron process that is forecasted to debut in 2005. These processors will run at less than 1 volt, 0.85v being the current estimate.
This brings up the obvious question, what would you possibly want to do with a 10GHz processor?
Running Microsoft Word can only take so much processing power, regardless of how complex your documents may be, so there’s no real need for such a powerful processor in conventional application areas. However there are areas that definitely could use a little more power.
Intel is stressing their focus on pattern recognition as it applies to voice dictation and face detection among other things.
Imagine being able to speak normally with your computer as you would a secretary sitting next to you and have your computer accurately and quickly take notes from your speech.
Imagine logging onto your computer not via a user name and a password but by sitting in front of your display and having it scan your face to figure out if you are allowed access to the computer.
These are things that Intel is claiming will be possible by 2005 with the type of processors that will be available in desktop systems. It’s definitely going to be a bright future if this does hold true. Intel is working very hard in developing the software that will help make these visions a reality. Just think of all that has happened in the past 5 years alone, is the future that we’re painting for you all that far fetched of an idea?
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
14 Comments
View All Comments
SlyNine - Wednesday, August 18, 2010 - link
It'll be much much longer then we all thought. :Pcdurkinz - Monday, June 29, 2020 - link
You had no idea.... Just checking in, another decade on from when this article released! ;)karasaj - Wednesday, June 20, 2012 - link
They're 7 years overdue! :)History really is interesting.
Shahnewaz - Sunday, April 12, 2015 - link
It has been 10 years and the only processor even remotely close enough to 10GHz is an AMD FX-9590@5GHz.No, you're not realistically speaking. At least not Intel.
name99 - Monday, February 29, 2016 - link
IBM z12 clocked at 5.5GHz, and IBM has claimed POWER8 runs at 5GHz (though I don't know if they've ever sold those on the open market).Back in the day (2007) POWER6 WAS sold at 5GHz, and IBM claimed they had versions running at 6GHz (which they may well have sold not on the open market).
NJCompguy - Monday, February 29, 2016 - link
15 years later, we can now have facial recognition on a Surface Pro 4 to log in! Yay for the fast pace!! lolname99 - Monday, February 29, 2016 - link
"These are things that Intel is claiming will be possible by 2005 with the type of processors that will be available in desktop systems.... Intel is working very hard in developing the software that will help make these visions a reality. "Let's all remember this next time Intel predicts something, anything. Intel has three skills
- process/manufacturing
- circuit design
- micro-architecture design.
Unfortunately NOT on that list are things like
- software design
- ISA design
- vision for the future, and prediction
Which means you're going to be in a bubble if you live in the Intel world. That was obvious here with the absolute lack of mention of any other manufacturer (TSMC was 13 yrs old in 2000), and the lack of mention of other uses of CPUs (Apple Newton was 7 yrs old in 2000). Instead of asking what better processes might enable in less powerful machines, all we get is the question "how do we do more of the same?" The question to ask, usually, should NOT be "what do I do with a 10x faster processor" but "what do I do with a 100x CHEAPER" processor" or what do I do with a "100x lower power processor?"
The post-iPhone revolution has broken through this bubble in some respects, but not all. Almost everyone is willing to concede that CPUs in cell-phone are important, interesting, and worth following. But we get the same blindness when it comes to the next shrink in size, whether its smartwatches or IoT. And we get an absolute blindness when it comes to the idea of substantially restructured OSs, substantially restructured languages (and development paradigms) --- apparently we're going to be using UNIX-like OS's and C/C++ for the next hundred years...
Dr AB - Saturday, May 9, 2020 - link
Yes I agree .. it seems like they were totally limited in thinking because of living entirely in "intel world".For future yes thats what happening everyone is just following the "trends", too scared to do something of the box or taking an entirely different approach. In smartphones yes every year or so there are only performance/efficiency improvements that look so negligible in "real world" scenarios. More like 50 years from now nd looking back at the current era, feeling would be the same : "How the heck we are still stuck in the same ancient technology introduced years ago nd only recently has been implemented in a productive way." Thats what happen when I read some article from 20 years back.
zerghumper - Wednesday, February 8, 2017 - link
SlyNine,Much. Much longer. :(
PanZhang - Thursday, February 27, 2020 - link
It takes me 15 years to realize that a dream may never come ture.