On HP's website, these prophetic words are hidden, but can still be found:
"EPIC is the old term for what is now known as the ItaniumTM processor family architecture, co-developed by HP and Intel®. This design philosophy will one day replace RISC and CISC. It is a gateway into the 64-bit future but it still remains completely 32-bit compatible."
These sentences showed how bullish HP and Intel were a few years ago about their new creation. But in 2005, the reality is somewhat different:
"Dell will phase out its remaining computer based on Intel's Itanium microprocessor, in another sign of the waning interest in a chip that cost an estimated several billion dollars to develop." The Wall Street Journal, September 15th 2005.
While it is hardly news that Dell, who doesn't believe in "big iron" anyway, is dropping Itanium, the rest of the sentences that the WSJ journalist wrote down seem to spell doom.

As the Itanium market is still limited to HPC and (ultra) high-end servers, Microsoft is losing interest in the Itanium. IA 64 versions of Longhorn are low priority and only the future of the High Performance Computing version for Itanium seems certain. Visual Studio 2005 does not even support the Itanium platform. Dell and IBM are no longer interested. It is not going too well for Itanium.

A few years ago, analysts predicted doom for Sun; not completely without reason, as the Intel Itanium 2 and IBM Power 5 clearly wipe the floor performance-wise with the UltraSparc CPUs. However, Sun's revenge is very sweet. Sun's newest Galaxy servers with up to 16 Opteron cores are a very competitive platform for the expensive Itanium servers. The Galaxy servers are well suited for clustering, so even in the market niche that requires more than 16 CPUs, are the Itanium based machines threatened by a cheaper alternative?

Although the AMD Opteron targets a different market than the Intel Itanium, the Opteron market is expanding towards the high end, thanks to Sun, which in turn forces Intel to expand the feature set of the Xeon. Back in 2004 when EM64T was introduced, Intel pointed out that EM64T was only introduced on the Xeon DP. Intel probably expected the Opteron to be limited to workstations and entry level servers. However, the Opteron was very successful in the quad CPU market, and then it entered the 8-way and 16-way CPU market too. Intel had no choice then to counter attack and equip the Xeon MP with EMT64 and much higher clockspeeds than before the Opteron era, better RAS features and massive (for x86) L3 caches, up to 8MB big.

Is Itanium nothing more than over an ambitious project that resulted in a CPU of titanic proportions? In this article, we try to answer the question of whether or not the EPIC CPU has a bright future ahead. To answer that question, we'll focus on the technical advantages and disadvantages of the chip, and look ahead to see if the architecture can still grow enough to outpace the competition.

The End of a Generation

Indeed, you might ask yourself, why do we even bother writing articles about Itanium? It is, after all, a massive CPU that ends up in very expensive machines, mostly huge database servers and HPC machines for scientific purposes; machines that most of us will never consider buying, not even for business purposes.

Sturdy heatsinks for the Itanium

And Itanium is in a lot of trouble. The newest generation, Montecito, was projected to arrive in 2004 when Intel first mentioned it. Then the PowerPoint slides mentioned 2005, and it became clear now that the newest Itanium wouldn't make its appearance before mid-2006. Many people feel that this is one of the many signs that the "Itanic" is sinking slowly, but steadily.

Still, despite its rather dull reputation of a big iron CPU, and the flood of negative predictions, the EPIC has something fascinating. From a purely technical and academic point of view - completely ignoring the economical and business logic - there are some strong indications that time may well be on the side of the EPIC CPU despite all doom scenarios. That might sound insane right now, but allow me to explain this statement.

As we stated in the "The Quest for More Processing Power, Part One", the CPU performance increase that we enjoyed during the golden era of the PC from 1981 to 2002 has hit the brakes, and is decreasing quickly. Back in the nineties, Intel and others introduced techniques like superscalar wide issue, out of order execution with big reorder buffers, speculative execution, integrated L2-caches, register renaming and dynamic branch prediction, which all increased the number of instructions that could be processed per cycle (IPC) on average. The AMD Athlon, which was introduced in 1999, and the Thunderbird incarnation in 2000 could be considered as the last representatives of this superscalar generation. Macro ops fusion, introduced in the Athlon, where two operations are travelling down the pipeline together until they get separated to get executed, was one of the last major tricks of this generation.

Since then, only one improvement has really pushed performance per cycle forward: the on die memory controller (ODMC). Sure, there have been other "little tricks" that have steadily improved performance, but nothing spectacular. The CPU engineers still have a few tricks upon their sleeves that can improve IPC somewhat, but are limited to those that do not increase leakage and dynamic power loss. The focus is no longer on IPC or Instruction Level Parallelism (ILP). It is on Thread Level Parallelism (TLP).

A good example of how the engineering focus has shifted is branch prediction. Quite a bit of resources have been spent on the Pentium 4's branch predictor, involving a whole team of Intel engineers. The result was that, on average, the Pentium 4 branch predictor is accurate 95-97% of the time, while the P6 BPU was accurate only 90% of the time.

At Spring IDF 2005, when Anand, Derek and I asked Justin Rattner what Intel is doing in the field of even more advanced Branch prediction, he smiled. He told us that the current team who works on branch prediction is very small...around one person.

There is no doubt that the whole industry has shifted their focus away from ramping clock speed and improving ILP to increasing performance by exploiting TLP. So, how does this affect Itanium and its EPIC foundation? Before we answer that, let us quickly review the basics behind the Itanium/EPIC philosophy.

EPIC 101
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  • ravedave - Thursday, November 10, 2005 - link

    Who cares about TLP in the consumer space? Nothign can take advantage of it, HT showed that. I think whoever comes out with the best individual core next will do some sweet buisiness...
  • eastvillager - Thursday, November 10, 2005 - link

    That train is Opteron. All aboard!

    Itanium had a window where it could've shown, Intel missed it by a mile. Well, on the bright side, they killed HP's Unix Server business at the same time. I remember when HP announced they were stopping r&d on new PA-RISC processors and were switching to Itanium.

  • ElFenix - Thursday, November 10, 2005 - link

    the story of how intel killed it for a processor that was about a a decade and a half, if not more, ahead of its time? and mostly because it wasn't invented at intel, but rather was bought as part of the dec compaq hp debacle (ooo, inept management again!). that was about the most promising processor on the planet for a while, but now its buried.
  • Zebo - Thursday, November 10, 2005 - link

    Wow Johan I don't even care about Itanium but your prose kept me all the way through. :) Excellent write up.
  • WhoBeDaPlaya - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link

    Interesting read, especially after having just talked with two engineers from the Itanium team (they were from the HP side) at Fort Collins. *Keeping fingers crossed for career prospects there* :D
  • Matthias - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link

    "The Itanium is also wider than the competition, which results in bigger benefits from threading techniques."

    I don't buy that. Current Montecito's implementation of TLP only uses "Switch-on-Event Multithreading" which is a another name for Course Grain MT. At any specific time there is only one thread being executed per Montecito core. How can then a wider cpu benefit more than a more narrow cpu? You cannot use the unused execution units with instruction from another thread. So, where is the advantage of having more execution units available?

    The multithreading approach in Montecito helps hiding latencies but not doing more in parallel. You can't execute two instructions from different threads at the same time! The P4 can do so, although its capabilities in parallel instruction execution is limited by its rather narrow design.

    Of course, we are talking about one specific EPIC implementation. Nobody can't guarantee that with the next EPIC microarchitecture there will be an SMT in favor of a SoE-MT implementation. In this case the above statement would be correct, although I doubt that we will ever see an SMT implementation for Itanium. The static instruction issue used in Itanium does not fit very well with the rather dynamic issuing introduced with SMT.
  • IntelUser2000 - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link

    SoEMT hides memory latency, which is in a way taking advantage of increased ILP Itanium has since memory latency may limit the benefit.

    Also, it seems the performance among various apps vary as MUCH as opinions about the chip vary :). Some people really like it, while some hate it.

    About the performance, I can't find the link. There was an IDF presentation on PC World(found by google) and showed relative Montecito performance. It was around 20% faster per clock in integer, but they were very ambiguous about it. Citing MT, higher frequency, more cache, and dual cores. But for all that, 20% is so little. There was another IDF presentation about Foxton Technology, and showed Montecito benchmarks on TPC-C, which from numbers was almost 25% faster at same clock, half the sockets(same number of cores) and same platform.

    Intel and HP usually introduce better compilers at the same time, so I think its reasonable to expect 20-25% per clock. One other significant improvement on Montecito will be that it will have another shift unit, making the total two, along with others like more instructions and some little improvements here and there.

    Montecito has x86 compatibility unit taken out, using the software based IA32-EL.
  • IntelUser2000 - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link

    Itanium 2 Madison cache latency:
    32KB L1: 1 cycle
    256KB L2: 6 cycles
    9MB L3: 14 cycles

    32KB L1: 1 cycle
    1MB L2I, and 256KB L2D: 6 cycles(same as Madison)
    24MB L3: 14 cycles(same as madison)
  • stephenbrooks - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link

    I like this bit.

    --[HP and Intel have stated that the Itanium 2 core, including the L2-cache, has about 40 million transistors. If we subtract the L2 cache, we end up with about 26 transistors,]--
  • fic - Wednesday, November 9, 2005 - link">
    These are PowerPC chips, but not from IBM. From the website: "dual-core device, operates at 2GHz with typical power dissipation in the range of 5 to 13 watts". According to articles SPECint is >1000 per core and SPECfp >2000 per core.

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